Boxing Picks & Predictions: Fair Odds, Edge & EV
Gold-bordered boxes mark official bets.
10/24/2026
Settled bankroll: $4,133.15 · Open bets: $165.33 (1 wager) · Available: $3,967.82
Looks like we’re in for a weekend loaded with decisions. So take the overs and “fight to go the distance — YES.” But these are my picks for those decisions.
Shannon Ryan vs. Emma Dolan
10/24/2026 · 10 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Shannon Ryan — 57%
Method Pick: Decision — 41.90%
| Measure | Shannon Ryan | Emma Dolan |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 57% | 43% |
| Decision | 41.90% | 37.93% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 13.97% | 4.21% |
| Fair odds · ML | −133 | +133 |
| Market odds · ML | −300 · 10/18 | +220 · 10/18 |
| Edge · ML | −18.00 pp | +11.75 pp |
| EV · ML | −23.52% | +36.85% |
No bet
Giorgio Visioli vs. Maxi Hughes
10/24/2026 · 10 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Giorgio Visioli — 72%
Method Pick: Decision — 43.75%
| Measure | Giorgio Visioli | Maxi Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 72% | 28% |
| Decision | 43.75% | 24.15% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 26.81% | 3.29% |
| Fair odds · ML | −257 | +257 |
| Market odds · ML | −900 · 10/18 | +600 · 10/18 |
| Edge · ML | −18.00 pp | +13.71 pp |
| EV · ML | −19.60% | +94.08% |
No bet
Dalton Smith vs. Alberto Puello
Sheffield · 10/24/2026 · 12 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Dalton Smith — 57%
Method Pick: Decision — 33.52%
| Measure | Dalton Smith | Alberto Puello |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 57% | 43% |
| Decision | 33.52% | 34.55% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 22.34% | 7.59% |
| Fair odds · ML | −133 | +133 |
| Market odds · ML | −170 · 10/18 | +154 · 10/18 |
| Edge · ML | −5.96 pp | +3.63 pp |
| EV · ML | −9.28% | +9.04% |
No bet
Frank Martin vs. Tarik Zaina
10/24/2026 · 10 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Frank Martin — 72%
Method Pick: Decision — 40.42%
| Measure | Frank Martin | Tarik Zaina |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 72% | 28% |
| Decision | 40.42% | 22.06% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 30.50% | 5.52% |
| Fair odds · ML | −257 | +257 |
| Market odds · ML | −1800 · 10/18 | +720 · 10/18 |
| Edge · ML | −22.74 pp | +15.80 pp |
| EV · ML | −23.64% | +127.66% |
No bet
Albert Gonzalez vs. Edward Vazquez
10/24/2026 · 10 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Albert Gonzalez — 63%
Method Pick: Decision — 27.92%
| Measure | Albert Gonzalez | Edward Vazquez |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 63% | 37% |
| Decision | 27.92% | 31.71% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 34.13% | 4.74% |
| Fair odds · ML | −170 | +170 |
| Market odds · ML | −750 · 10/18 | +470 · 10/18 |
| Edge · ML | −25.24 pp | +19.46 pp |
| EV · ML | −28.17% | +109.24% |
No bet
10/17/2026
Settled bankroll: $4,133.15 · Open bets: $0.00 · Available: $4,133.15
Daniel Dubois vs. Fabio Wardley
London · 10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Daniel Dubois — 67%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 53%
| Measure | Daniel Dubois | Fabio Wardley |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 67% | 33% |
| Decision | 14% | 6% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 53% | 27% |
| Fair odds · ML | −203 | +203 |
| Market odds · ML | −390 | +310 |
| Edge · ML | −12.59 pp | +8.61 pp |
| EV · ML | −15.82% | +35.30% |
No bet
Bakhodir Jalalov vs. Sol Dacres
London · 10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Bakhodir Jalalov — 85%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 51%
| Measure | Bakhodir Jalalov | Sol Dacres |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 85% | 15% |
| Decision | 34% | 9% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 51% | 6% |
| Fair odds · ML | −567 | +567 |
| Market odds · ML | −370 | +250 |
| Edge · ML | +6.28 pp | −13.57 pp |
| EV · ML | +7.97% | −47.50% |
Bakhodir Jalalov over Dacres — ML −370
Stake: 2% of bankroll — $79.77
Bankroll used: $3,988.71
Potential profit: $21.56
Total return if won: $101.33
Fair ML: −567
Estimated edge: +6.28 points · EV: +7.8%
Louie O’Doherty vs. Michael Gomez Jr.
London · 10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Louie O’Doherty — 68%
Method Pick: Decision — 46%
| Measure | Louie O’Doherty | Michael Gomez Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 68% | 32% |
| Decision | 46% | 18% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 22% | 14% |
| Fair odds · ML | −213 | +213 |
| Market odds · ML | −240 | +175 |
| Edge · ML | −2.59 pp | −4.36 pp |
| EV · ML | −3.67% | −12.00% |
No bet
Brandon Figueroa vs. Tomoki Kameda — CANCELLED
Las Vegas · 10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Brandon Figueroa — 84%
Method Pick: Decision — 45%
| Measure | Brandon Figueroa | Tomoki Kameda |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 84% | 16% |
| Decision | 45% | 13% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 39% | 3% |
| Fair odds · ML | −525 | +525 |
| Market odds · ML | −450 | +350 |
| Edge · ML | +2.18 pp | −6.22 pp |
| EV · ML | +2.67% | −28.00% |
Brandon Figueroa over Kameda — ML −450
Stake: 2% of bankroll — $79.77
Bankroll used: $3,988.71
Result: VOID / NO ACTION
Stake returned: $79.77 · Profit: $0.00
Fair ML: −525
Estimated edge: +2.18 points · EV: +2.6%
VOID BET — FIGHT CANCELLED
Stake refunded in full. Profit/Loss: $0.00.
Sebastian Fundora vs. Ermal Hadribeaj
Las Vegas · 10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Sebastian Fundora — 91%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 64%
| Measure | Sebastian Fundora | Ermal Hadribeaj |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 91.92% | 8.08% |
| Decision | 27% | 5% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 64% | 3% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1138 | +1138 |
| Market odds · ML | −1700 | +1120 |
| Edge · ML | −2.53 pp | −0.12 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.65% | −1.40% |
Sebastian Fundora over Ermal Hadribeaj — KO/TKO/DQ anytime −350
Stake: 3% of bankroll — $122.94
Bankroll used: $4,098.02
Potential profit: $35.13
Total return if won: $158.07
Estimated KO/TKO/DQ probability: 64%
Fair KO/TKO/DQ odds: −178
Market odds: −350
Estimated edge: −13.78 points · EV: −17.71%
Nelson Birchall vs. Levi Giles
10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Nelson Birchall — 82%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 45%
| Measure | Nelson Birchall | Levi Giles |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 82% | 18% |
| Decision | 37% | 15% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 45% | 3% |
| Fair odds · ML | −456 | +456 |
| Market odds · ML | −625 | +500 |
| Edge · ML | −4.21 pp | +1.33 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.88% | +8.00% |
Nelson Birchall over Levi Giles — KO/TKO/DQ +110
Stake: 2% of bankroll — $79.77
Bankroll used: $3,988.71
Potential profit: $87.75
Total return if won: $167.52
Estimated KO/TKO/DQ probability: 45%
Fair KO/TKO/DQ odds: +122
Market odds: +110
Estimated edge: −2.62 points · EV: −5.5%
David Garcia vs. Angel Carrillo
10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: David Garcia — 74%
Method Pick: Decision — 46%
| Measure | David Garcia | Angel Carrillo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 74% | 26% |
| Decision | 46% | 21% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 28% | 5% |
| Fair odds · ML | −285 | +285 |
| Market odds · ML | −1667 | +800 |
| Edge · ML | −20.34 pp | +14.89 pp |
| EV · ML | −21.56% | +134.00% |
No bet
Marco Romero vs. Braulio Ferreira
10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Marco Romero — 91%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 60%
| Measure | Marco Romero | Braulio Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 91% | 9% |
| Decision | 31% | 6% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 60% | 3% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1011 | +1011 |
| Market odds · ML | −5000 | +1600 |
| Edge · ML | −7.04 pp | +3.12 pp |
| EV · ML | −7.18% | +53.00% |
No bet
Jaime Osuna vs. Cristian Cangelosi
10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Jaime Osuna — 55%
Method Pick: Decision — 38%
| Measure | Jaime Osuna | Cristian Cangelosi |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 55% | 45% |
| Decision | 38% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 17% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −122 | +122 |
| Market odds · ML | −305 | +225 |
| Edge · ML | −20.31 pp | +14.23 pp |
| EV · ML | −26.97% | +46.25% |
No bet
Armando Resendiz vs. Koen Mazoudier
10/17/2026
Straight-Up Pick: Armando Resendiz — 84%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 53%
| Measure | Armando Resendiz | Koen Mazoudier |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 84% | 16% |
| Decision | 31% | 10% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 53% | 6% |
| Fair odds · ML | −525 | +525 |
| Market odds · ML | −1100 | +540 |
| Edge · ML | −7.67 pp | +0.38 pp |
| EV · ML | −8.36% | +2.40% |
No bet
Adam Olaniyan vs. Dan Garber
10/17/2026 · 4 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Adam Olaniyan — 98%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 60%
| Measure | Adam Olaniyan | Dan Garber |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 98% | 2% |
| Decision | 38% | 0.5% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 60% | 1.5% |
| Fair odds · ML | −4900 | +4900 |
| Market odds · ML | −10000 | +2000 |
| Edge · ML | −1.01 pp | −2.76 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.02% | −58.00% |
No bet
Aaron Noriega vs. Leonardo Baez
10/17/2026 · 4 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Aaron Noriega — 95%
Method Pick: Decision — 52%
| Measure | Aaron Noriega | Leonardo Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 95% | 5% |
| Decision | 52% | 4% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 43% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1900 | +1900 |
| Market odds · ML | −3300 | +1100 |
| Edge · ML | −2.06 pp | −3.33 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.12% | −40.00% |
No bet
Fawas Aborode vs. Rashid Omar
10/17/2026 · 6 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Fawas Aborode — 95%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
| Measure | Fawas Aborode | Rashid Omar |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 95% | 5% |
| Decision | 57% | 4% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 38% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1900 | +1900 |
| Market odds · ML | −3300 | +1100 |
| Edge · ML | −2.06 pp | −3.33 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.12% | −40.00% |
No bet
Issiah Hamilton-Allen vs. Jensen Irving
10/17/2026 · 4 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Issiah Hamilton-Allen — 97%
Method Pick: Decision — 85%
| Measure | Issiah Hamilton-Allen | Jensen Irving |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 97% | 3% |
| Decision | 85% | 2% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 12% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −3233 | +3233 |
| Market odds · ML | −5000 | +1400 |
| Edge · ML | −1.04 pp | −3.67 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.06% | −55.00% |
No bet
Leighton Birchall vs. Alejandro Morales Chazaro
10/17/2026 · 6 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Leighton Birchall — 94%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
| Measure | Leighton Birchall | Alejandro Morales Chazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 94% | 6% |
| Decision | 57% | 4% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 37% | 2% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1567 | +1567 |
| Market odds · ML | −5000 | +1400 |
| Edge · ML | −4.04 pp | −0.67 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.12% | −10.00% |
No bet
Manny Safari vs. Jake Pollard
10/17/2026 · 4 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Manny Safari — 98%
Method Pick: Decision — 84%
| Measure | Manny Safari | Jake Pollard |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 98% | 2% |
| Decision | 84% | 1.5% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 14% | 0.5% |
| Fair odds · ML | −4900 | +4900 |
| Market odds · ML | −10000 | +2000 |
| Edge · ML | −1.01 pp | −2.76 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.02% | −58.00% |
No bet
Tony Curtis vs. Kerim Agius
10/17/2026 · 8 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Tony Curtis — 90%
Method Pick: Decision — 66%
| Measure | Tony Curtis | Kerim Agius |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 90% | 10% |
| Decision | 66% | 9% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 24% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −900 | +900 |
| Market odds · ML | −1200 | +600 |
| Edge · ML | −2.31 pp | −4.29 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.50% | −30.00% |
No bet
Zayn Ahmed vs. Kasey Bradnum
10/17/2026 · 4 rounds
Straight-Up Pick: Zayn Ahmed — 97%
Method Pick: Decision — 63%
| Measure | Zayn Ahmed | Kasey Bradnum |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 97% | 3% |
| Decision | 63% | 2.5% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 34% | 0.5% |
| Fair odds · ML | −3233 | +3233 |
| Market odds · ML | −5000 | +1400 |
| Edge · ML | −1.04 pp | −3.67 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.06% | −55.00% |
No bet
10/16/2026
Settled bankroll: $4,133.15 · Open bets: $0.00 · Available: $4,133.15
Charles Harris Jr. vs. Misael Cabrera Urias
Chandler, Arizona · 10/16/2026 · 10 rounds
Junior welterweight
Straight-Up Pick: Charles Harris Jr. — 51%
Method Pick: Decision — 39%
| Measure | Charles Harris Jr. | Misael Cabrera Urias |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 51% | 49% |
| Decision | 39% | 31% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 12% | 18% |
| Fair odds · ML | −104 | +104 |
| Market odds · ML | −115 | −115 |
| Edge · ML | −2.49 pp | −4.49 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.65% | −8.39% |
Razor-thin, essentially a 50/50 fight, with a small lean to Harris by decision. His counterpunching faces Cabrera’s experience and pressure. We expect this one to go the distance.
No bet
Bryan Acosta vs. Carlos Andres Arteaga Orona
Chandler, Arizona · 10/16/2026 · 10 rounds
Featherweight
Straight-Up Pick: Bryan Acosta — 82%
Method Pick: Decision — 59%
| Measure | Bryan Acosta | Carlos Andres Arteaga Orona |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 82% | 18% |
| Decision | 59% | 7% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 23% | 11% |
| Fair odds · ML | −456 | +456 |
| Market odds · ML | −700 | +400 |
| Edge · ML | −5.50 pp | −2.00 pp |
| EV · ML | −6.29% | −10.00% |
Acosta has the stronger tested opposition, including his win over Ronny Rios and competitive fight with Ramon Cardenas. Orona’s power keeps him dangerous, but Acosta’s experience makes a points win the likeliest outcome.
No bet
Justin Pauldo vs. Rene Tellez Giron
Chandler, Arizona · 10/16/2026 · 10 rounds
Lightweight
Straight-Up Pick: Rene Tellez Giron — 51%
Method Pick: Decision — 33%
| Measure | Justin Pauldo | Rene Tellez Giron |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 49% | 51% |
| Decision | 31% | 33% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 18% | 18% |
| Fair odds · ML | +104 | −104 |
| Market odds · ML | −130 | +100 |
| Edge · ML | −7.52 pp | +1.00 pp |
| EV · ML | −13.31% | +2.00% |
Razor-thin, essentially a 50/50 fight, with a small lean to Giron by decision. Giron’s pressure and recent activity get the narrow nod against Pauldo’s cleaner straight punching. We expect this one to go the distance.
No bet
Joshua Kevin Anton vs. Freudis Rojas
Chandler, Arizona · 10/16/2026 · 10 rounds
Junior middleweight
Straight-Up Pick: Joshua Kevin Anton — 84%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 47%
| Measure | Joshua Kevin Anton | Freudis Rojas |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 84% | 16% |
| Decision | 37% | 9% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 47% | 7% |
| Fair odds · ML | −525 | +525 |
| Market odds · ML | −1600 | +800 |
| Edge · ML | −10.12 pp | +4.89 pp |
| EV · ML | −10.75% | +44.00% |
Anton’s pressure and recent ten-round win over Vladimir Hernandez fit well against Rojas, who faded against Damian Sosa. Rojas’s amateur pedigree and southpaw jab keep the upset chance meaningful. Rojas has a price edge, but Anton remains our pick.
No bet
10/10/2026
Starting bankroll: $4,805.68 · Total bets for day: $816.97 · Returned: $0.00 · Closing bankroll: $3,988.71
Grant Flores over Dahlman — ML
Joshua Edwards over Lewis — ML
Tristan Kalkreuth over Rosado — ML
Jahmal Harvey over Castaneda Castro — ML
Ricardo Rafael Sandoval over Mendoza Cordova — KO/TKO
Floyd Schofield over Bahdi — KO/TKO
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Potential profit: approximately $778.52
Total return: approximately $922.69
Read the full Chicago parlay article
Julian Vogel over Diallo — ML −430
Naomy Valle over Moreno Castillo — ML −182
Tristan Kalkreuth over Rosado — ML −1100
Ricardo Rafael Sandoval over Mendoza Cordova — ML −600
Entire ticket stake: 4% of bankroll — $192.23
Bankroll: $4,805.68
Potential profit: $274.89 · Total return: $467.12
View official parlay bet
Artur Reis vs. Ismail Airoud
Straight-Up Pick: Artur Reis — 62%
Method Pick: Decision — 48.76%
| Measure | Artur Reis | Ismail Airoud |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 62% | 38% |
| Decision | 49.76% | 27.8% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 12.24% | 10.2% |
| Fair odds · ML | −163 | +163 |
| Market odds · ML | −550 | +330 |
| Edge · ML | −22.62 pp | +14.74 pp |
| EV · ML | −26.73% | +63.40% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Julian Vogel vs. Bakari Diallo
Straight-Up Pick: Julian Vogel — 74%
Method Pick: Decision — 42.52%
| Measure | Julian Vogel | Bakari Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 74% | 26% |
| Decision | 43.39% | 17.84% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 30.61% | 8.16% |
| Fair odds · ML | −285 | +285 |
| Market odds · ML | −430 | +290 |
| Edge · ML | −7.13 pp | +0.36 pp |
| EV · ML | −8.79% | +1.40% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Julian Vogel moneyline
Part of the 10/10 four-leg ML parlay +143.
Entire ticket stake: 4% of bankroll — $192.23
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Asa Stevens vs. Cristian Williams
Straight-Up Pick: Asa Stevens — 60%
Method Pick: Decision — 46.6%
| Measure | Asa Stevens | Cristian Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 60% | 40% |
| Decision | 47.96% | 29.44% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 12.04% | 10.56% |
| Fair odds · ML | −150 | +150 |
| Market odds · ML | −600 | +380 |
| Edge · ML | −25.71 pp | +19.17 pp |
| EV · ML | −30.00% | +92.00% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Grant Flores vs. Mikey Dahlman
Straight-Up Pick: Grant Flores — 91%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 60%
| Measure | Grant Flores | Mikey Dahlman |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 91% | 9% |
| Decision | 31% | 1% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 60% | 8% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1011 | +1011 |
| Market odds · ML | −3500 | +980 |
| Edge · ML | −6.22 pp | −0.26 pp |
| EV · ML | −6.40% | −2.80% |
Grant Flores over Dahlman — ML
Part of the six-leg Chicago ML/KO parlay +540.
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Read the full Chicago parlay article
View all six legs and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Naomy Valle vs. Sheyla Moreno Castillo
Straight-Up Pick: Naomy Valle — 75%
Method Pick: Decision — 64%
| Measure | Naomy Valle | Sheyla Moreno Castillo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 75% | 25% |
| Decision | 65.31% | 22.45% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 9.69% | 2.55% |
| Fair odds · ML | −300 | +300 |
| Market odds · ML | −225 | +134 |
| Edge · ML | +5.77 pp | −17.74 pp |
| EV · ML | +8.33% | −41.50% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Naomy Valle moneyline
Part of the 10/10 four-leg ML parlay +143.
Entire ticket stake: 4% of bankroll — $192.23
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Straight-Up Pick: Tristan Kalkreuth — 93%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 60%
| Measure | Tristan Kalkreuth | Ivan Rosado |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 93% | 7% |
| Decision | 33% | 2% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 60% | 5% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1329 | +1329 |
| Market odds · ML | −1100 | +540 |
| Edge · ML | +1.33 pp | −8.62 pp |
| EV · ML | +1.45% | −55.20% |
Tristan Kalkreuth vs. Ivan Rosado
Tristan Kalkreuth moneyline
Part of the 10/10 four-leg ML parlay +143.
Entire ticket stake: 4% of bankroll — $192.23
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Tristan Kalkreuth over Rosado — ML
Part of the six-leg Chicago ML/KO parlay +540.
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Read the full Chicago parlay article
View all six legs and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Gohan Rodriguez Garcia vs. Joe Shiraishi
Straight-Up Pick: Gohan Rodriguez Garcia — 70%
Method Pick: Decision — 63.6%
| Measure | Gohan Rodriguez Garcia | Joe Shiraishi |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 70% | 30% |
| Decision | 64.9% | 25.92% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 5.1% | 4.08% |
| Fair odds · ML | −233 | +233 |
| Market odds · ML | −600 | |
| Edge · ML | −15.71 pp | |
| EV · ML | −18.33% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Jahmal Harvey vs. Pedro Castaneda Castro
Straight-Up Pick: Jahmal Harvey — 96%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 75%
| Measure | Jahmal Harvey | Pedro Castaneda Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 96% | 4% |
| Decision | 21% | 2% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 75% | 2% |
| Fair odds · ML | −2400 | +2400 |
| Market odds · ML | −3000 | +850 |
| Edge · ML | −0.77 pp | −6.53 pp |
| EV · ML | −0.80% | −62.00% |
Jahmal Harvey over Castaneda Castro — ML
Part of the six-leg Chicago ML/KO parlay +540.
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Read the full Chicago parlay article
View all six legs and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Joshua Edwards vs. Craig Lewis
Straight-Up Pick: Joshua Edwards — 97%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 75%
| Measure | Joshua Edwards | Craig Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 97% | 3% |
| Decision | 22% | 1% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 75% | 2% |
| Fair odds · ML | −3233 | +3233 |
| Market odds · ML | −8000 | +1550 |
| Edge · ML | −1.77 pp | −3.06 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.79% | −50.50% |
Joshua Edwards over Lewis — ML
Part of the six-leg Chicago ML/KO parlay +540.
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Read the full Chicago parlay article
View all six legs and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Straight-Up Pick: Ricardo Rafael Sandoval — 89%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 52%
| Measure | Ricardo Rafael Sandoval | Sergio Alfonso Mendoza Cordova |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 89% | 11% |
| Decision | 37% | 3% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 52% | 8% |
| Fair odds · ML | −809 | +809 |
| Market odds · ML | −550 | +340 |
| Edge · ML | +4.38 pp | −11.73 pp |
| EV · ML | +5.18% | −51.60% |
Ricardo Rafael Sandoval vs. Sergio Alfonso Mendoza Cordova
Ricardo Rafael Sandoval over Mendoza Cordova — KO/TKO/DQ anytime
+145 · Stake: 7% of bankroll — $336.40
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Ricardo Rafael Sandoval moneyline
Part of the 10/10 four-leg ML parlay +143.
Entire ticket stake: 4% of bankroll — $192.23
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Ricardo Rafael Sandoval over Mendoza Cordova — KO/TKO
Part of the six-leg Chicago ML/KO parlay +540.
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Read the full Chicago parlay article
View all six legs and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Straight-Up Pick: Floyd Schofield — 80%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 45%
| Measure | Floyd Schofield | Lucas Bahdi |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 80% | 20% |
| Decision | 35% | 7% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 45% | 13% |
| Fair odds · ML | −400 | +400 |
| Market odds · ML | −1000 | +580 |
| Edge · ML | −10.91 pp | +5.29 pp |
| EV · ML | −12.00% | +36.00% |
Floyd Schofield vs. Lucas Bahdi
Floyd Schofield over Bahdi — KO/TKO/DQ anytime
+150 · Stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
Floyd Schofield over Bahdi — KO/TKO
Part of the six-leg Chicago ML/KO parlay +540.
Entire ticket stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17
Read the full Chicago parlay article
View all six legs and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $4,805.68
10/9/2026
Bankroll carried forward: $4,805.68 · No official wagers on this date.
Woo Hyeon Kim vs. Taku Kuwahara
Straight-Up Pick: Taku Kuwahara — 78%
Method Pick: Decision — 60.44%
| Measure | Woo Hyeon Kim | Taku Kuwahara |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 22% | 78% |
| Decision | 20.98% | 61.67% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 1.02% | 16.33% |
| Fair odds · ML | +355 | −355 |
| Market odds · ML | +333 | −455 |
| Edge · ML | −1.09 pp | −3.98 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.74% | −4.86% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Yuito Moriwaki vs. Deok No Yun
Straight-Up Pick: Yuito Moriwaki — 50.6%
Method Pick: Decision — 38.4%
| Measure | Yuito Moriwaki | Deok No Yun |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Decision | 39.25% | 34.16% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 11.35% | 15.24% |
| Fair odds · ML | −102 | +102 |
| Market odds · ML | −225 | +200 |
| Edge · ML | −18.63 pp | +16.07 pp |
| EV · ML | −26.91% | +48.20% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
10/8/2026
Starting bankroll: $6,083.14 · Total bets for day: $1,277.46 · Returned: $0.00 · Closing bankroll: $4,805.68
4-leg parlay +278
Beaudoin ML
Khataev KO/TKO/DQ
Asanau KO/TKO/DQ
Iglesias KO/TKO/DQ
Stake for entire ticket: 2% of bankroll — $121.66
Bankroll used: $6,083.14
Osleys Iglesias vs. Oliver Zaren
Straight-Up Pick: Osleys Iglesias — 96%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 82%
| Measure | Osleys Iglesias | Oliver Zaren |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 96% | 4% |
| Decision | 13.59% | 2.49% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 82.41% | 1.51% |
| Fair odds · ML | −2400 | +2400 |
| Market odds · ML | −1300 | +650 |
| Edge · ML | +3.14 pp | −9.33 pp |
| EV · ML | +3.38% | −70.00% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Iglesias KO/TKO/DQ rounds 1–6 +150
12% of bankroll — $729.98
Iglesias anytime KO/TKO/DQ
Part of the 10/8 four-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 2% of bankroll — $121.66
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,083.14
Wilkens Mathieu vs. Vladimir Shishkin
Straight-Up Pick: Wilkens Mathieu — 70%
Method Pick: Decision — 43%
| Measure | Wilkens Mathieu | Vladimir Shishkin |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 70% | 30% |
| Decision | 43% | 22% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 27% | 8% |
| Fair odds · ML | −233 | +233 |
| Market odds · ML | −1350 | +600 |
| Edge · ML | −23.10 pp | +15.71 pp |
| EV · ML | −24.81% | +110.00% |
Leila Beaudoin vs. Brisa Abigail Rosario Alfonzo
Straight-Up Pick: Leila Beaudoin — 90%
Method Pick: Decision — 71.1%
| Measure | Leila Beaudoin | Brisa Abigail Rosario Alfonzo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 90% | 10% |
| Decision | 71.82% | 8.99% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 18.18% | 1.01% |
| Fair odds · ML | −900 | +900 |
| Market odds · ML | −1350 | +620 |
| Edge · ML | −3.10 pp | −3.89 pp |
| EV · ML | −3.33% | −28.00% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Beaudoin moneyline
Part of the 10/8 four-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 2% of bankroll — $121.66
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,083.14
Dzmitry Asanau vs. Luis Santana
Straight-Up Pick: Dzmitry Asanau — 88%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 45%
| Measure | Dzmitry Asanau | Luis Santana |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 88% | 12% |
| Decision | 42.55% | 7.96% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 45.45% | 4.04% |
| Fair odds · ML | −733 | +733 |
| Market odds · ML | −1000 | +550 |
| Edge · ML | −2.91 pp | −3.38 pp |
| EV · ML | −3.20% | −22.00% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Asanau anytime KO/TKO/DQ +155
7% of bankroll — $425.82
Asanau anytime KO/TKO/DQ
Part of the 10/8 four-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 2% of bankroll — $121.66
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,083.14
Imam Khataev vs. Padraig McCrory
Straight-Up Pick: Imam Khataev — 93%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 78%
| Measure | Imam Khataev | Padraig McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 93% | 7% |
| Decision | 14.61% | 2.98% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 78.39% | 4.02% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1329 | +1329 |
| Market odds · ML | −2400 | +900 |
| Edge · ML | −3.00 pp | −3.00 pp |
| EV · ML | −3.12% | −30.00% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Khataev anytime KO/TKO/DQ
Part of the 10/8 four-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 2% of bankroll — $121.66
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,083.14
10/3/2026
10/2–10/3 ticket · Starting bankroll: $6,783.14 · Total bets for day: $700.00 · Returned: $0.00 · Closing bankroll: $6,083.14
Three-fight KO parlay +1397
Stake for entire ticket: $700.00 — 14 fixed $50 units; 10.32% of the $6,783.14 pre-bet bankroll
Omari Jones KO/TKO rounds 1–4
Fawaz–James, Round 11 to Start: NO
Ben Whittaker KO/TKO rounds 1–6
Paige Murney vs. Linzi Buczynskyj
Straight-Up Pick: Paige Murney — 89%
Method Pick: Decision — 88%
| Measure | Paige Murney | Linzi Buczynskyj |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 89% | 11% |
| Decision | 88% | 11% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | 0% |
| Fair odds · ML | −809 | +809 |
| Market odds · ML | −1600 | +750 |
| Edge · ML | −5.12 pp | −0.76 pp |
| EV · ML | −5.44% | −6.50% |
Klinton Baptiste vs. Aaron Bowen
Straight-Up Pick: Aaron Bowen — 84%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 59%
| Measure | Klinton Baptiste | Aaron Bowen |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 16% | 84% |
| Decision | 15% | 25% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | 59% |
| Fair odds · ML | +525 | −525 |
| Market odds · ML | +450 | −800 |
| Edge · ML | −2.18 pp | −4.89 pp |
| EV · ML | −12.00% | −5.50% |
Sean Bruce vs. Hamza Uddin
Straight-Up Pick: Hamza Uddin — 86%
Method Pick: Decision — 49%
| Measure | Sean Bruce | Hamza Uddin |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 14% | 86% |
| Decision | 13% | 49% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | 37% |
| Fair odds · ML | +614 | −614 |
| Market odds · ML | +550 | −1000 |
| Edge · ML | −1.38 pp | −4.91 pp |
| EV · ML | −9.00% | −5.40% |
Bilal Fawaz vs. Eithan James
Straight-Up Pick: Bilal Fawaz — 85%
Method Pick: Decision — 66%
| Measure | Bilal Fawaz | Eithan James |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 85% | 15% |
| Decision | 66% | 15% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 19% | 0% |
| Fair odds · ML | −567 | +567 |
| Market odds · ML | −800 | +450 |
| Edge · ML | −3.89 pp | −3.18 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.38% | −17.50% |
Fawaz–James — Round 11 to Start: NO
Part of the 10/2–10/3 three-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 10.32% of bankroll — $700.00
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,783.14
Ibraheem Sulaimaan vs. Sonny Hardy
Straight-Up Pick: Ibraheem Sulaimaan — 91%
Method Pick: Decision — 54%
| Measure | Ibraheem Sulaimaan | Sonny Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 91% | 9% |
| Decision | 54% | 5% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 37% | 4% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1011 | +1011 |
| Market odds · ML | −1200 | +600 |
| Edge · ML | −1.31 pp | −5.29 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.42% | −37.00% |
Ben Whittaker vs. Conor Wallace
Straight-Up Pick: Ben Whittaker — 89%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 57%
| Measure | Ben Whittaker | Conor Wallace |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 89% | 11% |
| Decision | 32% | 4% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 57% | 7% |
| Fair odds · ML | −809 | +809 |
| Market odds · ML | −1000 | +550 |
| Edge · ML | −1.91 pp | −4.38 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.10% | −28.50% |
Whittaker KO/TKO rounds 1–6
Part of the 10/2–10/3 three-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 10.32% of bankroll — $700.00
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,783.14
Jose Luis Russell Regalado vs. Rene Calixto
Straight-Up Pick: Jose Luis Russell Regalado — 56%
Method Pick: Decision — 35%
| Measure | Jose Luis Russell Regalado | Rene Calixto |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 56% | 44% |
| Decision | 35% | 38% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 21% | 6% |
| Fair odds · ML | −127 | +127 |
| Market odds · ML | −126 | −108 |
| Edge · ML | +0.25 pp | −7.92 pp |
| EV · ML | +0.44% | −15.26% |
Damian Biacho vs. Jose Luis Navarro Jr.
Straight-Up Pick: Damian Biacho — 52%
Method Pick: Decision — 46%
| Measure | Damian Biacho | Jose Luis Navarro Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 52% | 48% |
| Decision | 46% | 29% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 6% | 19% |
| Fair odds · ML | −108 | +108 |
| Market odds · ML | +132 | −180 |
| Edge · ML | +8.90 pp | −16.29 pp |
| EV · ML | +20.64% | −25.33% |
Original published pick and market odds
No bet
10/2/2026
10/2–10/3 ticket · Starting bankroll: $6,783.14 · Total bets for day: $700.00 · Returned: $0.00 · Closing bankroll: $6,083.14
Angel Hernandez III vs. Dulio Arath Jaramillo Barboza
Straight-Up Pick: Angel Hernandez III — 90%
Method Pick: Decision — 49%
| Measure | Angel Hernandez III | Dulio Arath Jaramillo Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 90% | 10% |
| Decision | 49% | 6% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 41% | 4% |
| Fair odds · ML | −900 | +900 |
| Market odds · ML | −10000 | +1700 |
| Edge · ML | −9.01 pp | +4.44 pp |
| EV · ML | −9.10% | +80.00% |
Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves vs. Fidencio Hernandez
Straight-Up Pick: Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves — 55%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 35%
| Measure | Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves | Fidencio Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 55% | 45% |
| Decision | 20% | 18% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 35% | 27% |
| Fair odds · ML | −122 | +122 |
| Market odds · ML | +100 | −138 |
| Edge · ML | +5.00 pp | −12.98 pp |
| EV · ML | +10.00% | −22.39% |
Jusiyah Shirley vs. Kevin Castillo
Straight-Up Pick: Jusiyah Shirley — 75%
Method Pick: Decision — 43%
| Measure | Jusiyah Shirley | Kevin Castillo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 75% | 25% |
| Decision | 43% | 16% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 32% | 9% |
| Fair odds · ML | −300 | +300 |
| Market odds · ML | −1500 | +750 |
| Edge · ML | −18.75 pp | +13.24 pp |
| EV · ML | −20.00% | +112.50% |
Ronny Alvarez Noa vs. Narciso Carmona
Straight-Up Pick: Ronny Alvarez Noa — 92%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 75%
| Measure | Ronny Alvarez Noa | Narciso Carmona |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 92% | 8% |
| Decision | 17% | 7% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 75% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1150 | +1150 |
| Market odds · ML | −5000 | +1300 |
| Edge · ML | −6.04 pp | +0.86 pp |
| EV · ML | −6.16% | +12.00% |
Jordan Orozco Hernandez vs. Yusniel Abrahante
Straight-Up Pick: Jordan Orozco Hernandez — 90%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 80%
| Measure | Jordan Orozco Hernandez | Yusniel Abrahante |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 90% | 10% |
| Decision | 10% | 9% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 80% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −900 | +900 |
| Market odds · ML | −1600 | +750 |
| Edge · ML | −4.12 pp | −1.76 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.38% | −15.00% |
Omari Jones vs. Alan Sanchez
Straight-Up Pick: Omari Jones — 94%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 68%
| Measure | Omari Jones | Alan Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 94% | 6% |
| Decision | 26% | 4% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 68% | 2% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1567 | +1567 |
| Market odds · ML | −3500 | +1100 |
| Edge · ML | −3.22 pp | −2.33 pp |
| EV · ML | −3.31% | −28.00% |
Jones KO/TKO rounds 1–4
Part of the 10/2–10/3 three-leg parlay.
Entire ticket stake: 10.32% of bankroll — $700.00
View full parlay and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $6,783.14
Harvey Smith vs. Joshua John
Straight-Up Pick: Harvey Smith — 57%
Method Pick: Decision — 53%
| Measure | Harvey Smith | Joshua John |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 57% | 43% |
| Decision | 53% | 42% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 4% | 1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −133 | +133 |
| Market odds · ML | +142 | −192 |
| Edge · ML | +15.68 pp | −22.75 pp |
| EV · ML | +37.94% | −34.60% |
Original published pick and market odds
No bet
9/26–9/27/2026
Starting bankroll: $7,135.00 · Total bets for day: $2,566.70 · Returned: $2,214.84 · Closing bankroll: $6,783.14
Sep 26–27 — 8-fight moneyline parlay
Pick: −185
Stake for entire ticket: 2% of bankroll — $142.70
View all 8 parlay selections and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $7,135.00
LEWIS RICHARDSON vs. IVAN TROFIMOVICH
Straight-Up Pick: LEWIS RICHARDSON — 96%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 55%
| Measure | LEWIS RICHARDSON | IVAN TROFIMOVICH |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 96.97% | 3.03% |
| Decision | 41.41% | 2.02% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 55.56% | 1.01% |
| Fair odds · ML | −3200 | +3200 |
| Market odds · ML | −8000 | +1550 |
| Edge · ML | −1.80 pp | −3.03 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.82% | −50.00% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
FRED PULLEN vs. LEONARDO FARETINA
Straight-Up Pick: FRED PULLEN — 91%
Method Pick: Decision — 54%
| Measure | FRED PULLEN | LEONARDO FARETINA |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 92.86% | 7.14% |
| Decision | 55.1% | 6.12% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 37.76% | 1.02% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1300 | +1300 |
| Market odds · ML | −5000 | +1280 |
| Edge · ML | −5.18 pp | −0.10 pp |
| EV · ML | −5.29% | −1.43% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
ALEX MACMILLAN vs. GUILLAUME AZAGIER
Straight-Up Pick: ALEX MACMILLAN — 91%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
| Measure | ALEX MACMILLAN | GUILLAUME AZAGIER |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 92.86% | 7.14% |
| Decision | 58.16% | 6.12% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 34.69% | 1.02% |
| Fair odds · ML | −1300 | +1300 |
| Market odds · ML | −1800 | +720 |
| Edge · ML | −1.88 pp | −5.05 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.98% | −41.43% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
NELSON BIRCHALL vs. LEWIS MORRIS
Straight-Up Pick: NELSON BIRCHALL — 88%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 44.1%
| Measure | NELSON BIRCHALL | LEWIS MORRIS |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| Decision | 44.8% | 8.16% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 45% | 2.04% |
| Fair odds · ML | −880 | +880 |
| Market odds · ML | −2400 | +810 |
| Edge · ML | −6.20 pp | −0.78 pp |
| EV · ML | −6.46% | −7.14% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
OTAR ERANOSYAN vs. DUVAN ZULETA
Straight-Up Pick: OTAR ERANOSYAN — 88%
Method Pick: Decision — 48%
| Measure | OTAR ERANOSYAN | DUVAN ZULETA |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 88% | 12% |
| Decision | 48% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 40% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −733 | +733 |
| Market odds · ML | −1800 | +720 |
| Edge · ML | −6.74 pp | −0.20 pp |
| EV · ML | −7.11% | −1.60% |
LASHA GURULI vs. HUGHIE WILSON
Straight-Up Pick: LASHA GURULI — 86%
Method Pick: Decision — 63%
| Measure | LASHA GURULI | HUGHIE WILSON |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 87.76% | 12.24% |
| Decision | 64.29% | 10.2% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 23.47% | 2.04% |
| Fair odds · ML | −717 | +717 |
| Market odds · ML | −1150 | +540 |
| Edge · ML | −4.24 pp | −3.38 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.61% | −21.63% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
RYUSEI MATSUMOTO vs. RUSSELL ACOSTA SILVEIRA
Straight-Up Pick: RYUSEI MATSUMOTO — 84%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
| Measure | RYUSEI MATSUMOTO | RUSSELL ACOSTA SILVEIRA |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 85.71% | 14.29% |
| Decision | 58.16% | 12.24% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 27.55% | 2.04% |
| Fair odds · ML | −600 | +600 |
| Market odds · ML | −750 | +430 |
| Edge · ML | −2.52 pp | −4.58 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.86% | −24.29% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
THANONGSAK SIMSRI vs. MARK VICELLES
Straight-Up Pick: THANONGSAK SIMSRI — 83%
Method Pick: Decision — 55%
| Measure | THANONGSAK SIMSRI | MARK VICELLES |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 84.69% | 15.31% |
| Decision | 56.12% | 12.24% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 28.57% | 3.06% |
| Fair odds · ML | −553 | +553 |
| Market odds · ML | −1000 | +510 |
| Edge · ML | −6.22 pp | −1.09 pp |
| EV · ML | −6.84% | −6.63% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
SULTAN ZAURBEK vs. JACKSON ENGLAND
Straight-Up Pick: SULTAN ZAURBEK — 82%
Method Pick: Decision — 61%
| Measure | SULTAN ZAURBEK | JACKSON ENGLAND |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 83.67% | 16.33% |
| Decision | 62.24% | 13.27% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 21.43% | 3.06% |
| Fair odds · ML | −513 | +513 |
| Market odds · ML | −750 | +430 |
| Edge · ML | −4.56 pp | −2.54 pp |
| EV · ML | −5.17% | −13.47% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
LUKE MCCORMACK vs. KAY PROSPERE
Straight-Up Pick: LUKE MCCORMACK — 82%
Method Pick: Decision — 51%
| Measure | LUKE MCCORMACK | KAY PROSPERE |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 83.67% | 16.33% |
| Decision | 52.04% | 14.29% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 31.63% | 2.04% |
| Fair odds · ML | −513 | +513 |
| Market odds · ML | −2000 | +600 |
| Edge · ML | −11.56 pp | +2.04 pp |
| EV · ML | −12.14% | +14.29% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
BRADLEY GOLDSMITH vs. AMIR ABUBAKER
Straight-Up Pick: BRADLEY GOLDSMITH — 76%
Method Pick: Decision — 51%
| Measure | BRADLEY GOLDSMITH | AMIR ABUBAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 77.55% | 22.45% |
| Decision | 52.04% | 18.37% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 25.51% | 4.08% |
| Fair odds · ML | −345 | +345 |
| Market odds · ML | −750 | +420 |
| Edge · ML | −10.68 pp | +3.22 pp |
| EV · ML | −12.11% | +16.73% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
GEROME WARBURTON vs. NATHAN HEANEY
Straight-Up Pick: GEROME WARBURTON — 72%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
| Measure | GEROME WARBURTON | NATHAN HEANEY |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 73.47% | 26.53% |
| Decision | 58.16% | 22.45% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 15.31% | 4.08% |
| Fair odds · ML | −277 | +277 |
| Market odds · ML | −330 | +230 |
| Edge · ML | −3.27 pp | −3.77 pp |
| EV · ML | −4.27% | −12.45% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
JOHNNY FISHER vs. MICHAEL PIROTTON
Straight-Up Pick: JOHNNY FISHER — 72%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 50%
| Measure | JOHNNY FISHER | MICHAEL PIROTTON |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 73.47% | 26.53% |
| Decision | 22.45% | 13.27% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 51.02% | 13.27% |
| Fair odds · ML | −277 | +277 |
| Market odds · ML | −1150 | +540 |
| Edge · ML | −18.53 pp | +10.91 pp |
| EV · ML | −20.14% | +69.80% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Sep 26 — Johnny Fisher vs Michael Pirotton
Pick: Fisher KO + Under 4.5 +120
Stake: 6% of bankroll — $428.00
Bankroll used: $7,135.00
KYRONE DAVIS vs. JEISON ROSARIO
Straight-Up Pick: KYRONE DAVIS — 72%
Method Pick: Decision — 56%
| Measure | KYRONE DAVIS | JEISON ROSARIO |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 72% | 28% |
| Decision | 56% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 16% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −257 | +257 |
| Market odds · ML | −650 | +410 |
| Edge · ML | −14.67 pp | +8.39 pp |
| EV · ML | −16.92% | +42.80% |
ALEXIS DE LA CERDA vs. CAIN LEWIS
Straight-Up Pick: ALEXIS DE LA CERDA — 69%
Method Pick: Decision — 51%
| Measure | ALEXIS DE LA CERDA | CAIN LEWIS |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 70.41% | 29.59% |
| Decision | 52.04% | 23.47% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 18.37% | 6.12% |
| Fair odds · ML | −238 | +238 |
| Market odds · ML | −550 | +330 |
| Edge · ML | −14.21 pp | +6.34 pp |
| EV · ML | −16.79% | +27.24% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
TAKUMA INOUE vs. TENSHIN NASUKAWA
Straight-Up Pick: TAKUMA INOUE — 69%
Method Pick: Decision — 55%
| Measure | TAKUMA INOUE | TENSHIN NASUKAWA |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 70.41% | 29.59% |
| Decision | 56.12% | 24.49% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 14.29% | 5.1% |
| Fair odds · ML | −238 | +238 |
| Market odds · ML | −260 | +188 |
| Edge · ML | −1.81 pp | −5.13 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.51% | −14.78% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
MAI SOLIMAN vs. MARIA MICHEO SANTIZO
Straight-Up Pick: MAI SOLIMAN — 68%
Method Pick: Decision — 46%
| Measure | MAI SOLIMAN | MARIA MICHEO SANTIZO |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 68% | 32% |
| Decision | 46% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 22% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −213 | +213 |
| Market odds · ML | −450 | +300 |
| Edge · ML | −13.82 pp | +7.00 pp |
| EV · ML | −16.89% | +28.00% |
TOMOYA TSUBOI vs. RICARDO MALAJIKA
Straight-Up Pick: TOMOYA TSUBOI — 67%
Method Pick: Decision — 55%
| Measure | TOMOYA TSUBOI | RICARDO MALAJIKA |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 68.37% | 31.63% |
| Decision | 56.12% | 25.51% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 12.24% | 6.12% |
| Fair odds · ML | −216 | +216 |
| Market odds · ML | −600 | +370 |
| Edge · ML | −17.35 pp | +10.36 pp |
| EV · ML | −20.24% | +48.67% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
ROGELIO ROMERO vs. AUREL IGNAT
Straight-Up Pick: ROGELIO ROMERO — 65%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 36%
| Measure | ROGELIO ROMERO | AUREL IGNAT |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 66.33% | 33.67% |
| Decision | 29.59% | 22.45% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 36.73% | 11.22% |
| Fair odds · ML | −197 | +197 |
| Market odds · ML | −215 | +160 |
| Edge · ML | −1.93 pp | −4.79 pp |
| EV · ML | −2.82% | −12.45% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Sep 26 — Rogelio Romero vs Aurel Ignat
Pick: Romero KO + Under 6.5 +250
Stake: 7.99% of bankroll — $570.00
Bankroll used: $7,135.00
LIAM DAVIES vs. NATHANIEL COLLINS
Straight-Up Pick: LIAM DAVIES — 65%
Method Pick: Decision — 46%
| Measure | LIAM DAVIES | NATHANIEL COLLINS |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 66.33% | 33.67% |
| Decision | 46.94% | 26.53% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 19.39% | 7.14% |
| Fair odds · ML | −197 | +197 |
| Market odds · ML | −310 | +210 |
| Edge · ML | −9.28 pp | +1.42 pp |
| EV · ML | −12.28% | +4.39% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
CESAR MATEO TAPIA vs. LEO RUIZ
Straight-Up Pick: CESAR MATEO TAPIA — 61%
Method Pick: Decision — 44%
| Measure | CESAR MATEO TAPIA | LEO RUIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 62.24% | 37.76% |
| Decision | 44.9% | 29.59% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 17.35% | 8.16% |
| Fair odds · ML | −165 | +165 |
| Market odds · ML | −260 | +182 |
| Edge · ML | −9.98 pp | +2.29 pp |
| EV · ML | −13.81% | +6.47% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
LEE CUTLER vs. LOUIS GREENE
Straight-Up Pick: LEE CUTLER — 60%
Method Pick: Decision — 46%
| Measure | LEE CUTLER | LOUIS GREENE |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 61.22% | 38.78% |
| Decision | 46.94% | 28.57% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 14.29% | 10.2% |
| Fair odds · ML | −158 | +158 |
| Market odds · ML | −164 | +120 |
| Edge · ML | −0.90 pp | −6.68 pp |
| EV · ML | −1.44% | −14.69% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
MICHAEL BRACAMONTES vs. ERIC MONDRAGON
Straight-Up Pick: ERIC MONDRAGON — 57%
Method Pick: Decision — 45%
| Measure | MICHAEL BRACAMONTES | ERIC MONDRAGON |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 43% | 57% |
| Decision | — | 45% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | — | 12% |
| Fair odds · ML | +133 | −133 |
| Market odds · ML | −172 | +125 |
| Edge · ML | −20.24 pp | +12.56 pp |
| EV · ML | −32.00% | +28.25% |
Sep 27 — Michael Bracamontes vs Eric Mondragon
Pick: Eric Mondragon ML +125
Stake: 6% of bankroll — $428.00
Bankroll used: $7,135.00
CRAIG RICHARDS vs. RADIVOJE KALAJDZIC
Straight-Up Pick: CRAIG RICHARDS — 55%
Method Pick: Decision — 39%
| Measure | CRAIG RICHARDS | RADIVOJE KALAJDZIC |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 56.12% | 43.88% |
| Decision | 39.8% | 30.61% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 16.33% | 13.27% |
| Fair odds · ML | −128 | +128 |
| Market odds · ML | +125 | −118 |
| Edge · ML | +11.68 pp | −10.25 pp |
| EV · ML | +26.28% | −18.94% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
Pick: Richards KO/TKO/DQ +333
Stake: 6% of bankroll — $428.00
Pick: Richards ML +125
Stake: 7.99% of bankroll — $570.00
Bankroll used: $7,135.00
RYOSUKE NISHIDA vs. SAM GOODMAN
Straight-Up Pick: RYOSUKE NISHIDA — 52%
Method Pick: Decision — 42%
| Measure | RYOSUKE NISHIDA | SAM GOODMAN |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 53.06% | 46.94% |
| Decision | 42.86% | 38.78% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 10.2% | 8.16% |
| Fair odds · ML | −113 | +113 |
| Market odds · ML | −166 | +122 |
| Edge · ML | −9.34 pp | +1.89 pp |
| EV · ML | −14.97% | +4.20% |
Moneyline probabilities use two-way pricing; the original pick call above is preserved.
9/19/2026
Starting bankroll: $5,000.00 · Total bets for day: $1,202.50 · Returned: $3,337.50 · Closing bankroll: $7,135.00
Sep 19 — 8-fight moneyline parlay
Pick: −135
Stake for entire ticket: 4.05% of bankroll — $202.50
View all 8 parlay selections and ticket stake
Bankroll used: $5,000.00
Pat Brown vs. John Hedges
Straight-Up Pick: Pat Brown — 83.6%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 70%
| Measure | Pat Brown | John Hedges |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| Decision | 13.6% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 70% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −510 | +510 |
| Market odds · ML | −800 | +490 |
| Edge · ML | −5.29 pp | −0.55 pp |
| EV · ML | −5.95% | −3.24% |
Pick: Under 7.5 rounds +137
Stake: 10% of bankroll — $500.00
Pick: Pat Brown KO/TKO/DQ rounds 1–6 +260
Stake: 10% of bankroll — $500.00
Bankroll used: $5,000.00
Shabaz Masoud vs. Ckari Cani Mansilla
Straight-Up Pick: Shabaz Masoud — 88%
Method Pick: Decision — 58%
| Measure | Shabaz Masoud | Ckari Cani Mansilla |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 88% | 12% |
| Decision | 58% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 30% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −733 | +733 |
| Market odds · ML | −1600 | +660 |
| Edge · ML | −6.12 pp | −1.16 pp |
| EV · ML | −6.50% | −8.80% |
Kieron Conway vs. Mark Jeffers
Straight-Up Pick: Kieron Conway — 57%
Method Pick: Decision — 43%
| Measure | Kieron Conway | Mark Jeffers |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 57% | 43% |
| Decision | 43% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 14% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −133 | +133 |
| Market odds · ML | −144 | +110 |
| Edge · ML | −2.02 pp | −4.62 pp |
| EV · ML | −3.42% | −9.70% |
Joe Howarth vs. Cory O’Regan
Straight-Up Pick: Joe Howarth — 54%
Method Pick: Decision — 43%
| Measure | Joe Howarth | Cory O’Regan |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 54% | 46% |
| Decision | 43% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 11% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −117 | +117 |
| Market odds · ML | −158 | +118 |
| Edge · ML | −7.24 pp | +0.13 pp |
| EV · ML | −11.82% | +0.28% |
Alfie Middlemiss vs. Christopher Mondongo
Straight-Up Pick: Alfie Middlemiss — 81%
Method Pick: Decision — 68%
| Measure | Alfie Middlemiss | Christopher Mondongo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 81% | 19% |
| Decision | 68% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 13% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −426 | +426 |
| Market odds · ML | −1600 | +680 |
| Edge · ML | −13.12 pp | +6.18 pp |
| EV · ML | −13.94% | +48.20% |
Garan Croft vs. Mohammed Graich
Straight-Up Pick: Garan Croft — 89%
Method Pick: Decision — 61%
| Measure | Garan Croft | Mohammed Graich |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 89% | 11% |
| Decision | 61% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 28% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −809 | +809 |
| Market odds · ML | −2400 | +830 |
| Edge · ML | −7.00 pp | +0.25 pp |
| EV · ML | −7.29% | +2.30% |
Tom Rafferty vs. Liam Walsh
Straight-Up Pick: Tom Rafferty — 84%
Method Pick: Decision — 52%
| Measure | Tom Rafferty | Liam Walsh |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 84% | 16% |
| Decision | 52% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 32% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −525 | +525 |
| Market odds · ML | −1800 | +720 |
| Edge · ML | −10.74 pp | +3.80 pp |
| EV · ML | −11.33% | +31.20% |
Jack Power vs. Victor Ionascu
Straight-Up Pick: Jack Power — 88%
Method Pick: Decision — 55%
| Measure | Jack Power | Victor Ionascu |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 88% | 12% |
| Decision | 55% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 33% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −733 | +733 |
| Market odds · ML | −3000 | +870 |
| Edge · ML | −8.77 pp | +1.69 pp |
| EV · ML | −9.07% | +16.40% |
Emily Whitworth vs. Beata Dudek
Straight-Up Pick: Emily Whitworth — 87%
Method Pick: Decision — 67%
| Measure | Emily Whitworth | Beata Dudek |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 87% | 13% |
| Decision | 67% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 20% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −669 | +669 |
| Market odds · ML | −3000 | +850 |
| Edge · ML | −9.77 pp | +2.47 pp |
| EV · ML | −10.10% | +23.50% |
Isaac Cruz vs. Nestor Bravo
Straight-Up Pick: Isaac Cruz — 67.2%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 39%
| Measure | Isaac Cruz | Nestor Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Decision | 28.2% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 39% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −205 | +205 |
| Market odds · ML | −750 | +470 |
| Edge · ML | −21.04 pp | +15.26 pp |
| EV · ML | −23.84% | +86.96% |
Daniel Blancas vs. Sergio Jimenez
Straight-Up Pick: Daniel Blancas — 80%
Method Pick: Decision — 47%
| Measure | Daniel Blancas | Sergio Jimenez |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 80% | 20% |
| Decision | 47% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 33% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −400 | +400 |
| Market odds · ML | −3500 | +1020 |
| Edge · ML | −17.22 pp | +11.07 pp |
| EV · ML | −17.71% | +124.00% |
Lazaro Lorenzana vs. Marcos Vazquez Rodriguez
Straight-Up Pick: Lazaro Lorenzana — 67.8%
Method Pick: Decision — 41%
| Measure | Lazaro Lorenzana | Marcos Vazquez Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| Decision | 41% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 26.8% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −211 | +211 |
| Market odds · ML | −1800 | +720 |
| Edge · ML | −26.94 pp | +20.00 pp |
| EV · ML | −28.43% | +164.04% |
Eumir Marcial vs. Omar Ulises Huerta
Straight-Up Pick: Eumir Marcial — 61.4%
Method Pick: Decision — 36%
| Measure | Eumir Marcial | Omar Ulises Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| Decision | 36% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 25.4% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −159 | +159 |
| Market odds · ML | −850 | +490 |
| Edge · ML | −28.07 pp | +21.65 pp |
| EV · ML | −31.38% | +127.74% |
Robert Guerrero Jr. vs. Shawn Rall
Straight-Up Pick: Robert Guerrero Jr. — 84%
Method Pick: Decision — 49%
| Measure | Robert Guerrero Jr. | Shawn Rall |
|---|---|---|
| Win · two-way | 84% | 16% |
| Decision | 49% | — |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 35% | — |
| Fair odds · ML | −525 | +525 |
| Market odds · ML | −1600 | +660 |
| Edge · ML | −10.12 pp | +2.84 pp |
| EV · ML | −10.75% | +21.60% |
9/19 — Jesus Ramos Jr. vs. Meiirim Nursultanov
Straight-up: Nursultanov — 50%+
Method: Nursultanov by decision — 34%
Mr. Magic
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