Official Bets 9-19 to 9-27

1. OFFICIAL BETS

Probability reconciliation: Richards anytime KO uses the original published 16% method forecast. Fisher anytime KO was 50%; Romero anytime KO was 36%. Conflicting later estimates have been removed. Exact round-range probabilities for Fisher and Romero were not established, so their fair odds and EV are omitted. Actual stakes, odds and results are preserved.

Overall Betting Performance
Official Bets
5–4
55.6%
Total Wagered
$3,769.20
Total Returned
$5,552.34
Overall Profit
+$1,783.14
Betting ROI
+47.3%
Current Bankroll
$6,783.14
WEEK 1 — SEPTEMBER 19, 2026
Pat Brown vs John Hedges
Bet
Pat Brown KO/TKO/DQ Rounds 1–6
Odds
+260
Model
62%
Fair Odds
-163
EV
+123.2%
Bankroll Bet
10% — $500
Result
W — +$1,300
Return
$1,800
Pat Brown vs John Hedges
Bet
Under 7.5 Rounds
Odds
+137
Model
64.6%
Fair Odds
-182
EV
+53.1%
Bankroll Bet
10% — $500
Result
W — +$685
Return
$1,185
8-Fight Moneyline Parlay
Odds
-135
Model
28.3%
Fair Odds
+253
EV
-50.7%
Amount Bet
$202.50
Result
W — +$150
Return
$352.50
WEEK 2 — SEPTEMBER 26–27, 2026
Craig Richards vs Radivoje Kalajdzic
Bet
Craig Richards Moneyline
Odds
+125
Model
55%
Fair Odds
-122
EV
+23.8%
Bankroll Bet
8% — $570
Result
L — -$570
Craig Richards vs Radivoje Kalajdzic
Bet
Craig Richards KO/TKO/DQ
Odds
+333
Model
16%
Fair Odds
+525
EV
-30.7%
Bankroll Bet
6% — $428
Result
L — -$428
Johnny Fisher vs Michael Pirotton
Bet
Fisher KO + Under 4.5 Rounds
Odds
+120
Model
Exact round-range probability not established
Fair Odds
Not established
EV
Not established
Anytime KO forecast
50% — original method estimate; not the round-range bet probability
Bankroll Bet
6% — $428
Result
L — -$428
Rogelio Romero vs Aurel Ignat
Bet
Romero KO + Under 6.5 Rounds
Odds
+250
Model
Exact round-range probability not established
Fair Odds
Not established
EV
Not established
Anytime KO forecast
36% — original method estimate; not the round-range bet probability
Bankroll Bet
8% — $570
Result
W — +$1,425
Return
$1,995
8-Fight Moneyline Parlay
Odds
-185
Model
34.4%
Fair Odds
+191
EV
-47.0%
Bankroll Bet
2% — $142.70
Result
W — +$77.14
Return
$219.84
Michael Bracamontes vs Eric Mondragon
Bet
Eric Mondragon Moneyline
Odds
+125
Model
57%
Fair Odds
-133
EV
+28.3%
Bankroll Bet
6% — $428
Result
L — -$428

Audit correction — October 17, 2026: Removed a duplicate copy of this report and exposed stylesheet text. Actual ticket odds, dollar stakes, returns and the 5–4 record through September 27 are unchanged. Bankroll percentages are rounded descriptions of the recorded dollar stakes.

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