Result correction — October 17, 2026: Lewis Richardson defeated Ivan Trofimovich on points over six rounds, 60–54. Our KO/TKO method pick is corrected from WIN to LOSS. Straight-up and the moneyline parlay remain WIN. Queensberry result.
Audit correction — October 17, 2026: Restored two omitted published picks with recorded market lines: Harvey Smith +142 (straight-up and decision WIN) and Damian Biacho +132 (straight-up and decision LOSS). Both were picks only. Records and October 2–3 totals include both; official wager results and bankroll are unchanged.
Historical method correction: The published method record includes the October 9 correction to Nelson Birchall–Lewis Morris: KO 44.1%, decision 43.9%, graded WIN. This correction was made after the bout; the original forecast is retained in the archive.
Our straight-up picks finished 12–3 this weekend—an 80.0% win rate. Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves and Jose Luis Russell Regalado were two of our three outright losses. Rene Calixto’s split-decision win is now confirmed.
Method picks finished 7–8 (46.7%). The $700 knockout parlay lost despite winning its first two legs: Omari Jones and Bilal Fawaz delivered their stoppages, but Ben Whittaker won by decision.
Straight-Up Results
Angel Hernandez III over Dulio Arath Jaramillo Barboza
WIN — KO, Round 1
Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves over Fidencio Hernandez
LOSS — Hernandez by majority decision
Jusiyah Shirley over Kevin Castillo
WIN — Unanimous decision
Ronny Alvarez Noa over Narciso Carmona
WIN — Stoppage, Round 3
Jordan Orozco Hernandez over Yusniel Abrahante
WIN — Stoppage, Round 6
Omari Jones over Alan Sanchez
WIN — TKO, Round 2
Paige Murney over Linzi Buczynskyj
WIN — Points
Aaron Bowen over Klinton Baptiste
WIN — Unanimous decision
Hamza Uddin over Sean Bruce
WIN — Stoppage, Round 8
Bilal Fawaz over Eithan James
WIN — Stoppage, Round 8
Ibraheem Sulaimaan over Sonny Hardy
WIN — Unanimous decision
Ben Whittaker over Conor Wallace
WIN — Unanimous decision
Jose Luis Russell Regalado over Rene Calixto
LOSS — Calixto by split decision, 10 rounds. Our pre-fight pick: Russell Regalado 56%; Calixto 44%. Russell by decision (35%) also grades as a method loss.
Harvey Smith over Joshua JohnStraight-up: WIN · Method: Decision — WIN
Harvey Smith defeated Joshua John by unanimous decision over 12 rounds.
Published market odds: +142 · No bet · Original pick and odds
Damian Biacho over Jose Luis Navarro Jr.Straight-up: LOSS · Method: Decision — LOSS
Jose Luis Navarro Jr. defeated Damian Biacho by split decision over 12 rounds.
Published market odds: +132 · No bet · Original pick and odds
Weekend Scorecard
Straight-Up Picks
10/2: 6–1
10/3: 6–2
Weekend: 12–3
Win %: 80.0%
Method Picks
10/2: 5–2
10/3: 2–6
Weekend: 7–8
Win %: 46.7%
Official Bet — $700 Knockout Parlay at +1397
Omari Jones KO/TKO, Rounds 1–4 — WIN
Jones stopped Alan Sanchez 49 seconds into Round 2, taking care of the opening leg.
Fawaz–James, Round 11 to Start: NO — WIN
Fawaz stopped Eithan James in Round 8. His sustained pressure produced the breakdown we discussed before the fight and secured the second leg.
Ben Whittaker KO/TKO, Rounds 1–6 — LOSS
Whittaker won by unanimous decision but could not stop Conor Wallace inside six rounds. Wallace remained dangerous late, hurting Whittaker and forcing him to survive the closing rounds.
Two of three legs won, but the parlay did not cash.
Stake
$700
Return
$0
Weekend Profit/Loss
−$700
The distinction matters: picking Whittaker to win was correct; betting him to finish Wallace within six rounds was not. That narrower outcome decided the entire ticket.
Updated Mr. Magic Record
Tracking began September 19, 2026. Results through October 3, 2026.
Straight-Up Picks
Record: 43–10–1
Win %: 79.6%
Method Picks
Record: 25–29
Win %: 46.3%
Official Bets
Record: 5–5
Win %: 50.0%
Straight-up win percentage includes the draw in the total number of selections. The three-leg parlay counts as one official wager.
Method record correction: Birchall’s corrected KO forecast (44.1%, with decision at 43.9%) is graded as a method win. Fights without recorded market odds are excluded from picks and prediction records.
Bankroll and Betting Performance
Total Wagered
$4,469.20
Total Returned
$5,552.34
Total Profit
+$1,083.14
Betting ROI
+24.2%
Starting Bankroll
$5,000.00
Current Bankroll
$6,083.14
Bankroll Growth
+21.7%
Profit in $50 Units
+21.66 units
Underdog Winners We Missed — October 2–3
Fidencio Hernandez over Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves — majority decision.
Our estimate: Hernandez 45%; Ortiz Nieves 55%. Our saved market quote was +180 on Hernandez.
Rene Calixto over Jose Luis Russell Regalado — split decision.
Our estimate: Calixto 44%; Russell Regalado 56%. Pre-fight market listings showed Calixto at +104 to +110 (with some +130 quotes). Earlier in the week Russell was +106; prices changed, so these are available pre-fight quotes, not a verified closing price.
Sources: TUDN Calixto result; Calixto +104 market listing; Oddschecker pre-fight market listings.
What We Learned
The straight-up selections had a strong weekend. Eleven winners from thirteen fights moved the running record to 42–9–1.
Method selection remains the weaker area. Bowen and Whittaker won on the scorecards when we projected stoppages, while Uddin and Fawaz stopped opponents when our recorded method picks favored decisions. Fawaz’s successful stoppage bet does not change how the original method prediction is graded.
The next improvement is to distinguish more carefully between winning a fight, winning by stoppage, and winning by stoppage within a specific round range. Each requires its own probability and price assessment.
We finished the weekend down $700, while remaining ahead $1,083.14 since tracking began. The record will continue to show both the successful predictions and the losing wagers.
