Early Picks Oct. 2nd-3rd

Oct. 2nd-3rd Picks


Our early picks for the October 2–3 boxing slate are below, with model win percentages, fair odds, market comparisons and most likely methods.


10/2/2026


HERNANDEZ VS JARAMILLO


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Angel Hernandez III

Record: 6-0 • 6 KOs

90% | -900 | -10000 | -9.0% | -9.1% | 49% | 41%


Dulio Arath Jaramillo Barboza

Record: 1-2 • 1 KO

10% | +900 | +1700 | +4.4% | +80.0% | 6% | 4%


Hernandez has the stronger overall profile, record and power. The price is favorable on Jaramillo, but the fighter is not; Hernandez remains our pick, so no bet on the underdog.


Straight Up Pick - Hernandez III 90%

Most Likely Method - Decision 49%



10/2/2026


ORTIZ NIEVES VS HERNANDEZ


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves

Record: 4-0 • 4 KOs

55% | -122 | +100 | +5.0% | +10.0% | 20% | 35%


Fidencio Hernandez

Record: 4-0 • 3 KOs

45% | +122 | -138 | -13.0% | -22.4% | 18% | 27%


Both are unbeaten punchers, but Ortiz Nieves gets the narrow overall edge. He is our pick and +100 is favorable against our -122 fair line.


Straight Up Pick - Ortiz Nieves 55%

Most Likely Method - KO/TKO 35%



10/2/2026


SHIRLEY VS CASTILLO


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Jusiyah Shirley

Record: 9-1 • 7 KOs

75% | -300 | -1500 | -18.8% | -20.0% | 43% | 32%


Kevin Castillo

Record: 6-2-1 • 0 KOs

25% | +300 | +750 | +13.2% | +112.5% | 16% | 9%


Shirley has the stronger offensive profile and is our clear straight-up pick. The price is favorable on Castillo, but the fighter is not; our model still expects Shirley to win, so no bet on Castillo.


Straight Up Pick - Shirley 75%

Most Likely Method - Decision 43%



10/2/2026


ALVAREZ NOA VS CARMONA


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Ronny Alvarez Noa

Record: 7-0 • 6 KOs

92% | -1150 | -5000 | -6.0% | -6.2% | 17% | 75%


Narciso Carmona

Record: 12-2-1 • 7 KOs

8% | +1150 | +1300 | +0.9% | +12.0% | 7% | 1%


Alvarez Noa's power makes the stoppage our dominant outcome at 75%. The price is favorable on Carmona, but the fighter is not; Alvarez Noa remains our strong pick and Carmona is a no bet.


Straight Up Pick - Alvarez Noa 92%

Most Likely Method - KO/TKO 75%



10/2/2026


OROZCO HERNANDEZ VS ABRAHANTE


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Jordan Orozco Hernandez

Record: 17-0 • 17 KOs

90% | -900 | -1600 | -4.1% | -4.4% | 10% | 80%


Yusniel Abrahante

Record: 8-2 • 1 KO

10% | +900 | +750 | -1.8% | -15.0% | 9% | 1%


Orozco Hernandez's 17 stoppages in 17 wins make KO/TKO the clear projection. We strongly favor him to win, but -1600 is shorter than our -900 fair line.


Straight Up Pick - Orozco Hernandez 90%

Most Likely Method - KO/TKO 80%



10/2/2026


JONES VS SANCHEZ


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Omari Jones

Record: 7-0 • 4 KOs

94% | -1567 | -3500 | -3.2% | -3.3% | 26% | 68%


Alan Sanchez

Record: 24-7-1 • 10 KOs

6% | +1567 | +1100 | -2.3% | -28.0% | 4% | 2%


Jones has the major overall talent advantage, with KO/TKO his most likely method. Jones is our clear pick, but neither moneyline offers value at the available prices.


Straight Up Pick - Jones 94%

Most Likely Method - KO/TKO 68%



10/3/2026


MURNEY VS BUCZYNSKYJ


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Paige Murney

Record: 4-0 • 0 KOs

89% | -809 | -1600 | -5.1% | -5.4% | 88% | 1%


Linzi Buczynskyj

Record: 6-12 • 0 KOs

11% | +809 | +750 | -0.8% | -6.5% | 11% | 0%


Neither fighter has a stoppage win, making Murney by decision the overwhelming projection. Murney is our pick, but neither side offers value at these moneylines.


Straight Up Pick - Murney 89%

Most Likely Method - Decision 88%



10/3/2026


BAPTISTE VS BOWEN


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Klinton Baptiste

Record: 5-0 • 0 KOs

16% | +525 | +450 | -2.2% | -12.0% | 15% | 1%


Aaron Bowen

Record: 8-1 • 6 KOs

84% | -525 | -800 | -4.9% | -5.5% | 25% | 59%


Bowen has the significant power advantage, while Baptiste's main path is a decision. Bowen is our clear pick, but -800 is more expensive than our -525 fair price.


Straight Up Pick - Bowen 84%

Most Likely Method - KO/TKO 59%



10/3/2026


BRUCE VS UDDIN


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Sean Bruce

Record: 8-2 • 0 KOs

14% | +614 | +550 | -1.4% | -9.0% | 13% | 1%


Hamza Uddin

Record: 6-0 • 3 KOs

86% | -614 | -1000 | -4.9% | -5.4% | 49% | 37%


Uddin has more ways to win, while Bruce brings almost no projected stoppage threat. Uddin is our pick, but -1000 is too expensive compared with our -614 fair line.


Straight Up Pick - Uddin 86%

Most Likely Method - Decision 49%



10/3/2026


FAWAZ VS JAMES


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Bilal Fawaz

Record: 12-1-1 • 4 KOs

85% | -567 | -800 | -3.9% | -4.4% | 66% | 19%


Eithan James

Record: 17-2 • 0 KOs

15% | +567 | +450 | -3.2% | -17.5% | 15% | 0%


Fawaz has the stronger offensive arsenal, with decision his most likely result. Fawaz is our pick, but neither current moneyline gives us value.


Straight Up Pick - Fawaz 85%

Most Likely Method - Decision 66%



10/3/2026


SULAAIMAAN VS HARDY


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Ibraheem Sulaimaan

Record: 11-0 • 5 KOs

91% | -1011 | -1200 | -1.3% | -1.4% | 54% | 37%


Sonny Hardy

Record: 12-0 • 5 KOs

9% | +1011 | +600 | -5.3% | -37.0% | 5% | 4%


Both are unbeaten, but Sulaimaan has the stronger overall boxing profile. He is our clear pick, although -1200 is slightly more expensive than our -1011 fair price.


Straight Up Pick - Sulaimaan 91%

Most Likely Method - Decision 54%



10/3/2026


WHITTAKER VS WALLACE


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Ben Whittaker

Record: 12-0-1 • 9 KOs

89% | -809 | -1000 | -1.9% | -2.1% | 32% | 57%


Conor Wallace

Record: 17-1 • 12 KOs

11% | +809 | +550 | -4.4% | -28.5% | 4% | 7%


Whittaker has the speed, skill and defensive advantage, while Wallace brings legitimate power and pressure. Whittaker's most likely individual outcome is KO/TKO at 57%. Our fair moneyline is -809, so -1000 is slightly too expensive. Wallace at +550 is also well below our +809 fair price, leaving neither moneyline attractive.


Straight Up Pick - Whittaker 89%

Most Likely Method - KO/TKO 57%



10/3/2026


RUSSELL REGALADO VS CALIXTO


Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico


Fighter | Win % | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | EV | Decision % | KO/TKO %


Jose Luis Russell Regalado

Record: 19-1 • 13 KOs

56% | -127 | Market Odds Unavailable | — | — | 35% | 21%


Rene Calixto

Record: 24-2-1 • 10 KOs

44% | +127 | Market Odds Unavailable | — | — | 38% | 6%


Russell Regalado has the youth, southpaw style and stronger finishing power, while Calixto brings more high-level experience and proven durability. We give Russell Regalado the narrow overall edge at 56%, but with no verified market price there is currently no value determination.


Straight Up Pick - Russell Regalado 56%

Most Likely Method - Decision 35%

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