Week 2 Results As Of 9-27-26

Result correction — October 17, 2026: Lewis Richardson defeated Ivan Trofimovich on points over six rounds, 60–54. Our KO/TKO method pick is corrected from WIN to LOSS. Straight-up and the moneyline parlay remain WIN. Queensberry result.

Fights without recorded market odds are excluded from picks and prediction records.

Probability reconciliation: Wager estimates now match the original published method forecasts where recoverable. Richards anytime KO: 16%; Fisher anytime KO: 50%; Romero anytime KO: 36%. Exact Fisher/Romero round-range estimates are not established and are not replaced with their anytime probabilities.

Method correction — 10/9/2026: At the user’s direction, Birchall is KO 44.1% and decision 43.9%. KO is the method pick, graded WIN; straight-up remains WIN. Week 2 methods: 12–13 (48.0%); through Week 2: 18–21 (46.2%).


WEEK 2 RESULTS — SEPTEMBER 26–27, 2026

MR. MAGIC'S BOXING PICKS
MrMagicsBoxingPicks.blogspot.com


WEEK 2 DASHBOARD

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS
Record: 19-5-1
Win: 76.0%
Loss: 20.0%
Draw: 4.0%

METHOD PICKS
Record: 12-13
Win: 48.0%
Loss: 52.0%

OFFICIAL BETS
Record: 2-4
Win: 33.3%
Loss: 66.7%

Week 2 Starting Bankroll: $7,135.00
Week 2 Profit/Loss: -$351.86
Current Bankroll: $6,783.14

Original Starting Bankroll: $5,000.00
Overall Profit: +$1,783.14
Overall Bankroll Growth: +35.7%


1. OFFICIAL BETS

WEEK 2 BET RECORD: 2-4

Win: 33.3%
Loss: 66.7%
Betting ROI: -13.7%


CRAIG RICHARDS vs. RADIVOJE KALAJDZIC

BET: Craig Richards ML

Market Odds: +125
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
EV: +23.8%
EV Grade: POSITIVE

Amount Bet: $570.00
Bankroll Risk: 8%

Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Kalajdzic UD

Profit/Loss: -$570.00
Return: $0.00


CRAIG RICHARDS vs. RADIVOJE KALAJDZIC

BET: Craig Richards KO/TKO/DQ

Market Odds: +333
Our Percentage: 16% — original anytime KO method forecast
Fair Odds: +525
EV: -30.7%
EV Grade: NEGATIVE

Amount Bet: $428.00
Bankroll Risk: 6%

Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Kalajdzic UD

Profit/Loss: -$428.00
Return: $0.00


JOHNNY FISHER vs. MICHAEL PIROTTON

BET: Johnny Fisher KO + Under 4.5 SFP

Market Odds: +120
Exact round-range probability: not established; original anytime KO forecast: 50%
Fair Odds: not established for this exact wager
EV: not established for this exact wager
EV Grade: NOT ESTABLISHED

Amount Bet: $428.00
Bankroll Risk: 6%

Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Fisher MD

Profit/Loss: -$428.00
Return: $0.00


ROGELIO ROMERO vs. AUREL IGNAT

BET: Rogelio Romero KO + Under 6.5 SFP

Market Odds: +250
Exact round-range probability: not established; original anytime KO forecast: 36%
Fair Odds: not established for this exact wager
EV: not established for this exact wager
EV Grade: NOT ESTABLISHED

Amount Bet: $570.00
Bankroll Risk: 8%

Result: WIN
Actual Result: Romero TKO3

Profit: +$1,425.00
Return: $1,995.00


8-FIGHT MONEYLINE PARLAY

ACTIVE LEGS:

Lewis Richardson
Fred Pullen
Alex MacMillan
Nelson Birchall
Lasha Guruli
Ryusei Matsumoto
Thanongsak Simsri
Luke McCormack

Market Odds: -185
Our Combined Percentage: 34.4%
Fair Odds: +191
EV: -47.0%
EV Grade: NEGATIVE

Amount Bet: $142.70
Bankroll Risk: 2%

Result: WIN
Actual Result: All 8 active legs won

Profit: +$77.14
Return: $219.84


MICHAEL BRACAMONTES vs. ERIC MONDRAGON

BET: Eric Mondragon ML

Market Odds: +125
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
EV: +28.3%
EV Grade: POSITIVE

Amount Bet: $428.00
Bankroll Risk: 6%

Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Bracamontes SD

Profit/Loss: -$428.00
Return: $0.00


BETTING SUMMARY

Record: 2-4

Total Amount Bet: $2,566.70
Total Returned: $2,214.84

Week 2 Profit/Loss: -$351.86
Betting ROI: -13.7%
Bankroll Change: -4.9%

EV subgroup records omitted because the exact-wager probabilities were not established.
Recorded stakes, odds, results and bankroll totals remain unchanged.


BANKROLL

Original Starting Bankroll: $5,000.00

Week 2 Starting Bankroll: $7,135.00
Week 2 Profit/Loss: -$351.86

Current Bankroll: $6,783.14

Profit From Original $5,000:
+$1,783.14

Overall Bankroll Growth:
+35.7%


2. STRAIGHT-UP PICKS

WEEK 2 RECORD: 19-5-1

Win: 76.0%
Loss: 20.0%
Draw: 4.0%


STRAIGHT-UP PICKS 1–6



1. LEWIS RICHARDSON vs. IVAN TROFIMOVICH

Pick: Lewis Richardson
Our Percentage: 96%
Fair Odds: -2400
Market Odds: -4100
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Richardson PTS6, 60–54








2. FRED PULLEN vs. LEONARDO FARETINA

Pick: Fred Pullen
Our Percentage: 91%
Fair Odds: -1011
Market Odds: -3300
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Pullen PTS


3. ALEX MACMILLAN vs. GUILLAUME AZAGIER

Pick: Alex MacMillan
Our Percentage: 91%
Fair Odds: -1011
Market Odds: -3500
Result: WIN
Actual Result: MacMillan TKO2


4. NELSON BIRCHALL vs. LEWIS MORRIS

Pick: Nelson Birchall
Our Percentage: 88%
Fair Odds: -733
Market Odds: -2000
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Birchall KO/TKO


5. OTAR ERANOSYAN vs. DUVAN ZULETA

Pick: Otar Eranosyan
Our Percentage: 88%
Fair Odds: -733
Market Odds: -1567
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Eranosyan UD


6. LASHA GURULI vs. HUGHIE WILSON

Pick: Lasha Guruli
Our Percentage: 86%
Fair Odds: -614
Market Odds: -1100
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Guruli PTS


STRAIGHT-UP PICKS 7–16

7. RYUSEI MATSUMOTO vs. RUSSELL ACOSTA SILVEIRA

Pick: Ryusei Matsumoto
Our Percentage: 84%
Fair Odds: -525
Market Odds: -700
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Matsumoto UD


8. THANONGSAK SIMSRI vs. MARK VICELLES

Pick: Thanongsak Simsri
Our Percentage: 83%
Fair Odds: -488
Market Odds: -800
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Simsri TKO2


9. SULTAN ZAURBEK vs. JACKSON ENGLAND

Pick: Sultan Zaurbek
Our Percentage: 82%
Fair Odds: -456
Market Odds: -800
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Zaurbek DEC


10. LUKE MCCORMACK vs. KAY PROSPERE

Pick: Luke McCormack
Our Percentage: 82%
Fair Odds: -456
Market Odds: -700
Result: WIN
Actual Result: McCormack KO10


11. BRADLEY GOLDSMITH vs. AMIR ABUBAKER

Pick: Bradley Goldsmith
Our Percentage: 76%
Fair Odds: -317
Market Odds: -700
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Goldsmith KO7


12. GEROME WARBURTON vs. NATHAN HEANEY

Pick: Gerome Warburton
Our Percentage: 72%
Fair Odds: -257
Market Odds: -275
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Warburton UD


13. JOHNNY FISHER vs. MICHAEL PIROTTON

Pick: Johnny Fisher
Our Percentage: 72%
Fair Odds: -257
Market Odds: -1200
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Fisher MD


14. KYRONE DAVIS vs. JEISON ROSARIO

Pick: Kyrone Davis
Our Percentage: 72%
Fair Odds: -257
Market Odds: -435
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Davis DEC


15. ALEXIS DE LA CERDA vs. CAIN LEWIS

Pick: Alexis De La Cerda
Our Percentage: 69%
Fair Odds: -223
Market Odds: -500
Result: WIN
Actual Result: De La Cerda UD


16. TAKUMA INOUE vs. TENSHIN NASUKAWA

Pick: Takuma Inoue
Our Percentage: 69%
Fair Odds: -223
Market Odds: -220
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Inoue DEC


STRAIGHT-UP PICKS 17–25

17. MAI SOLIMAN vs. MARIA MICHEO SANTIZO

Pick: Mai Soliman
Our Percentage: 68%
Fair Odds: -213
Market Odds: -313
Result: DRAW
Actual Result: Split Draw


18. TOMOYA TSUBOI vs. RICARDO MALAJIKA

Pick: Tomoya Tsuboi
Our Percentage: 67%
Fair Odds: -203
Market Odds: -590
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Malajika SD


19. ROGELIO ROMERO vs. AUREL IGNAT

Pick: Rogelio Romero
Our Percentage: 65%
Fair Odds: -186
Market Odds: -225
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Romero TKO3


20. LIAM DAVIES vs. NATHANIEL COLLINS

Pick: Liam Davies
Our Percentage: 65%
Fair Odds: -186
Market Odds: -275
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Davies stoppage


21. CESAR MATEO TAPIA vs. LEO RUIZ

Pick: Cesar Mateo Tapia
Our Percentage: 61%
Fair Odds: -156
Market Odds: -260
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Ruiz UD


22. LEE CUTLER vs. LOUIS GREENE

Pick: Lee Cutler
Our Percentage: 60%
Fair Odds: -150
Market Odds: -165
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Cutler UD


23. MICHAEL BRACAMONTES vs. ERIC MONDRAGON

Pick: Eric Mondragon
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
Market Odds: +125
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Bracamontes SD


24. CRAIG RICHARDS vs. RADIVOJE KALAJDZIC

Pick: Craig Richards
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Market Odds: +125
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Kalajdzic UD


25. RYOSUKE NISHIDA vs. SAM GOODMAN

Pick: Ryosuke Nishida
Our Percentage: 52%
Fair Odds: -108
Market Odds: -200
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Goodman UD


STRAIGHT-UP CONFIDENCE CALIBRATION

90-100%
Record: 3-0
Win: 100.0%

80-89%
Record: 7-0
Win: 100.0%

70-79%
Record: 4-0
Win: 100.0%

60-69%
Record: 5-2-1
Win: 62.5%
Loss: 25.0%
Draw: 12.5%

50-59%
Record: 0-3
Win: 0.0%
Loss: 100.0%


STRAIGHT-UP — AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

Winning Picks:
78.5%

Losing Picks:
58.4%

Draw:
68.0%


BIGGEST STRAIGHT-UP MISSES

Tomoya Tsuboi
Our Percentage: 67%
Fair Odds: -203
Actual Result: Ricardo Malajika SD

Cesar Mateo Tapia
Our Percentage: 61%
Fair Odds: -156
Actual Result: Leo Ruiz UD

Eric Mondragon
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
Actual Result: Michael Bracamontes SD

Craig Richards
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Actual Result: Radivoje Kalajdzic UD

Ryosuke Nishida
Our Percentage: 52%
Fair Odds: -108
Actual Result: Sam Goodman UD


3. METHOD PICKS

WEEK 2 RECORD: 12-13

Win: 48.0%
Loss: 52.0%


METHOD PICKS 1–7







1. LASHA GURULI vs. HUGHIE WILSON

Method Pick: Lasha Guruli DEC
Our Percentage: 63%
Fair Odds: -170
Market Reference: -1100 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Guruli PTS


2. SULTAN ZAURBEK vs. JACKSON ENGLAND

Method Pick: Sultan Zaurbek DEC
Our Percentage: 61%
Fair Odds: -156
Market Reference: -800 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Zaurbek DEC


3. ALEX MACMILLAN vs. GUILLAUME AZAGIER

Method Pick: Alex MacMillan DEC
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
Market Reference: -3500 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: MacMillan TKO2


4. RYUSEI MATSUMOTO vs. RUSSELL ACOSTA SILVEIRA

Method Pick: Ryusei Matsumoto DEC
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
Market Odds: +110 MOV
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Matsumoto UD


5. GEROME WARBURTON vs. NATHAN HEANEY

Method Pick: Gerome Warburton DEC
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
Market Reference: -275 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Warburton UD


6. KYRONE DAVIS vs. JEISON ROSARIO

Method Pick: Kyrone Davis DEC
Our Percentage: 56%
Fair Odds: -127
Market Reference: -435 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Davis DEC


7. LEWIS RICHARDSON vs. IVAN TROFIMOVICH

Method Pick: Lewis Richardson KO/TKO
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Market Reference: -4100 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Richardson PTS6, 60–54


METHOD PICKS 8–16

8. THANONGSAK SIMSRI vs. MARK VICELLES

Method Pick: Thanongsak Simsri DEC
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Market Reference: -800 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Simsri TKO2


9. TAKUMA INOUE vs. TENSHIN NASUKAWA

Method Pick: Takuma Inoue DEC
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Market Odds: -135 MOV
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Inoue DEC


10. TOMOYA TSUBOI vs. RICARDO MALAJIKA

Method Pick: Tomoya Tsuboi DEC
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Market Odds: -110 MOV
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Malajika SD




11. FRED PULLEN vs. LEONARDO FARETINA

Method Pick: Fred Pullen DEC
Our Percentage: 54%
Fair Odds: -117
Market Reference: -3300 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Pullen PTS


12. LUKE MCCORMACK vs. KAY PROSPERE

Method Pick: Luke McCormack DEC
Our Percentage: 51%
Fair Odds: -104
Market Reference: -700 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: McCormack KO10


13. BRADLEY GOLDSMITH vs. AMIR ABUBAKER

Method Pick: Bradley Goldsmith DEC
Our Percentage: 51%
Fair Odds: -104
Market Reference: -700 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Goldsmith KO7


14. ALEXIS DE LA CERDA vs. CAIN LEWIS

Method Pick: Alexis De La Cerda DEC
Our Percentage: 51%
Fair Odds: -104
Market Reference: -500 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: De La Cerda UD


15. JOHNNY FISHER vs. MICHAEL PIROTTON

Method Pick: Johnny Fisher KO/TKO
Our Percentage: 50%
Fair Odds: +100
Market Odds: -333 MOV
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Fisher MD


16. OTAR ERANOSYAN vs. DUVAN ZULETA

Method Pick: Otar Eranosyan DEC
Our Percentage: 48%
Fair Odds: +108
Market Reference: -1567 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Eranosyan UD


METHOD PICKS 17–25

17. LIAM DAVIES vs. NATHANIEL COLLINS

Method Pick: Liam Davies DEC
Our Percentage: 46%
Fair Odds: +117
Market Reference: -275 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Davies stoppage


18. MAI SOLIMAN vs. MARIA MICHEO SANTIZO

Method Pick: Mai Soliman DEC
Our Percentage: 46%
Fair Odds: +117
Market Reference: -313 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Split Draw


19. LEE CUTLER vs. LOUIS GREENE

Method Pick: Lee Cutler DEC
Our Percentage: 46%
Fair Odds: +117
Market Reference: -165 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Cutler UD


20. MICHAEL BRACAMONTES vs. ERIC MONDRAGON

Method Pick: Eric Mondragon DEC
Our Percentage: 45%
Fair Odds: +122
Market Reference: +125 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Bracamontes SD


21. NELSON BIRCHALL vs. LEWIS MORRIS

Method Pick: Nelson Birchall KO
Our Percentage: KO 44.1%; decision 43.9%
Fair Odds: KO +127; decision +128
Market Reference: -2000 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Birchall KO/TKO


22. CESAR MATEO TAPIA vs. LEO RUIZ

Method Pick: Cesar Mateo Tapia DEC
Our Percentage: 44%
Fair Odds: +127
Market Reference: -260 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Ruiz UD


23. RYOSUKE NISHIDA vs. SAM GOODMAN

Method Pick: Ryosuke Nishida DEC
Our Percentage: 42%
Fair Odds: +138
Market Reference: -200 ML
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Goodman UD


24. CRAIG RICHARDS vs. RADIVOJE KALAJDZIC

Method Pick: Craig Richards DEC
Our Percentage: 39%
Fair Odds: +156
Market Odds: +250 MOV
Result: LOSS
Actual Result: Kalajdzic UD


25. ROGELIO ROMERO vs. AUREL IGNAT

Method Pick: Rogelio Romero KO/TKO
Our Percentage: 36%
Fair Odds: +178
Market Reference: -225 ML
Result: WIN
Actual Result: Romero TKO3


METHOD TYPE PERFORMANCE

DECISION PICKS

Record: 10-11
Win: 47.6%
Loss: 52.4%


KO/TKO PICKS (single method only)

Record: 2-2
Win: 50.0%
Loss: 50.0%


TOTAL METHOD

Record: 12-13
Win: 48.0%
Loss: 52.0%


METHOD CONFIDENCE

60%+

Wins: 2
Losses: 0

Win: 100.0%
Loss: 0.0%


50-59%

Wins: 6
Losses: 7

Win: 46.2%
Loss: 53.8%


UNDER 50%

Wins: 4
Losses: 6

Win: 40.0%
Loss: 60.0%


BIGGEST METHOD MISSES


Alex MacMillan DEC
Our Percentage: 57%
Fair Odds: -133
Actual Result: MacMillan TKO2

Thanongsak Simsri DEC
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Actual Result: Simsri TKO2

Tomoya Tsuboi DEC
Our Percentage: 55%
Fair Odds: -122
Actual Result: Malajika SD

Luke McCormack DEC
Our Percentage: 51%
Fair Odds: -104
Actual Result: McCormack KO10

Bradley Goldsmith DEC
Our Percentage: 51%
Fair Odds: -104
Actual Result: Goldsmith KO7

Johnny Fisher KO/TKO
Our Percentage: 50%
Fair Odds: +100
Actual Result: Fisher MD


WEEK 2 FINAL DASHBOARD

STRAIGHT-UP

Record: 19-5-1
Win: 76.0%
Loss: 20.0%
Draw: 4.0%


METHOD

Record: 12-13
Win: 48.0%
Loss: 52.0%


OFFICIAL BETS

Record: 2-4
Win: 33.3%
Loss: 66.7%


FINANCIAL

Total Wagered: $2,566.70
Total Returned: $2,214.84

Week 2 Profit/Loss: -$351.86
Betting ROI: -13.7%

Week 2 Starting Bankroll: $7,135.00
Current Bankroll: $6,783.14

Original Starting Bankroll: $5,000.00
Overall Profit: +$1,783.14
Overall Bankroll Growth: +35.7%


RUNNING RECORD — WEEKS 1 AND 2

STRAIGHT-UP

Week 1: 12-2
Week 2: 19-5-1

OVERALL: 31-7-1

Overall Win: 79.5%
Overall Loss: 17.9%
Overall Draw: 2.6%


METHOD

Week 1: 6-8
Week 2: 12-13

OVERALL: 18-21

Overall Win: 46.2%
Overall Loss: 53.8%


OFFICIAL BETS

Week 1: 3-0
Week 2: 2-4

OVERALL: 5-4

Overall Win: 55.6%
Overall Loss: 44.4%


BANKROLL

Original Starting Bankroll: $5,000.00
Week 1 Ending Bankroll: $7,135.00
Week 2 Ending Bankroll: $6,783.14

Overall Profit: +$1,783.14
Overall Bankroll Growth: +35.7%

Canceled Fights Through Week 2: 1

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